About & Methodology

Almost Insider is an AI-powered financial intelligence platform that analyzes publicly available government contract data to identify stock market opportunities. We built this because nobody else was connecting the dots between $7 trillion in annual government spending and the public companies that receive it.

How It Works

Twice weekly, our scoring engine scans federal procurement databases for new contract awards. Each contract is matched against our curated database of public company tickers, including subsidiaries, joint ventures, and supply chain beneficiaries.

The 7-Factor Score

Every matched contract is scored 0-100 across seven proprietary dimensions. Each factor is weighted based on our backtested research:

📊 Materiality

How significant is this contract to the company's overall revenue? A $500M deal to a $4B company is game-changing. To a $400B company, it's a rounding error.

⚡ Surprise Factor

Is this a new competitive win or a routine renewal? First-time awards signal growth; the market hasn't priced them in yet.

📈 Technical Momentum

We analyze multiple technical indicators to determine if the stock is positioned for upside. We want catalysts hitting stocks with room to run.

🏗️ Sector Momentum

Is the broader sector trending up or down? A defense contract means more when the entire sector is catching a tailwind.

🏛️ Political Tailwinds

Does the current administration prioritize this agency and mission? Budget trends, legislation, and executive orders all factor in.

🏥 Company Health

Is the company in trouble? Investigations, labor issues, or earnings headwinds can neutralize even the best contract award.

🔗 Supply Chain

Who else benefits that nobody is covering? Sometimes the subcontractor or materials supplier gets a bigger boost than the prime contractor.

Proprietary Filter Gates

Raw scoring is just the start. We apply multiple proprietary filter gates plus a conviction scoring threshold that turned our unfiltered 64% win rate into an 89% win rate on Insider Gold picks:

The specific thresholds, weights, and filtering criteria are proprietary and optimized through continuous backtesting.

The Insider Tier System

Not all picks are created equal. Our system classifies every contract into three tiers:

🥇 Insider Gold

Score 64+. These trigger real-time premium alerts. Validated with real historical RSI data: 89% win rate, +54% average return in 60 days across 2 years. This is what premium members pay for.

🥈 Insider Silver

Score 50-63. Passes all filter gates but below the Gold threshold. Still outperforms: 62% win rate, +7% average return. Included in weekly briefs and the live scoreboard.

🥉 Insider Bronze

Filtered by our gates. These contracts looked promising on paper but our AI flagged issues — overbought entries, recurring admin noise, or crisis signals. We show you exactly why we passed, so you learn what bad setups look like.

Data Sources

All of our data comes from publicly available, free sources:

Important Disclaimers

Almost Insider is NOT a registered investment advisor. Our scores, ratings, and analysis are generated by AI and are for informational purposes only. Past performance, including all backtest results, does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. See our full Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Who We Are

Almost Insider is built and operated by Micawber Media LLC, a digital ventures company with 20+ years of experience building and scaling internet businesses.